Heat networks could potentially supply 95TWh of heat – or 20 per cent of total UK demand – by 2050, according to a new government report.
The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) has released a study identifying so-called “opportunity areas” that could be best-placed to support future heat network projects and how much heat could be supplied by them.
Heat networks currently meet around 2 per cent of heat demand in the UK.
The research conducted by Arup on behalf of BEIS identified areas for district heating in each of the four nations in the UK by combining heat demand data and potential sources of waste heat to determine where heat networks could be commercially viable.
Currently space and water heating in the UK is predominantly provided by gas (73 per cent), followed by oil (10 per cent) and electricity (9 per cent).
The analysis suggested that heat networks could potentially supply around 95 TWh of heat. However, actual deployment is likely to be lower because, for example, local conditions are likely to differ from the UK wide assumptions used in the study, and some waste heat sources included in the model may be uneconomic to recover or cease to be available in future.
The results should therefore not be considered an indicative target for heat network deployment through to 2050. It is rather a maximum potential, and it is most likely that less than 20 per cent of total heating demand will be met by heat networks in practice.
Opportunity areas
The model used in the study identified areas with suitable economic conditions to develop heat networks and is based on current levels and locations of heat supply and demand.
It found that due to higher levels of heat demand for buildings in Scotland, heat network uptake could be greater as buildings could support greater lengths of pipework and the resultant heat network clusters could be larger.
Heat network potential is lower in Northern Ireland than the rest of the UK, partly because domestic demand accounts for a greater proportion of total heat demand when compared to other regions (c. 93 per cent, compared to the UK average of 81 per cent).
Building density in Northern Ireland is also generally lower than the rest of the UK (c. 58 buildings per km2, compared to the UK average of 133 buildings per km2).
Furthermore, heat network potential in Wales is lower than in England due to lower heat demand density.
Of all UK regions, the modelling showed that London could have the highest potential for heat networks due to the high density of heat demand, with the North West coming second in the ranking.
Other cities identified as having significant potential include Newcastle, Liverpool, Sheffield, Birmingham, Norwich, Bristol, Canterbury, Southampton and Plymouth in England; Bangor, Swansea and Cardiff in Wales; Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen and Inverness in Scotland; and Belfast and Londonderry in Northern Ireland.
The study comes as BEIS revealed the next stage of funding to develop heat networks across England will only support those powered by low-carbon technologies.
The £270 million replacement to the Heat Networks Investment Project will open for open for applications in April 2022 and is anticipated to run to 2025.