Developing, commercialising and integrating technologies and solutions that are already known, but underdeveloped, can help the UK move to a cost-effective low-carbon energy system over the next 35 years.
Analysis by ETI shows that although there is not one single technology answer, if we do not include bioenergy or carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the energy mix it will at least double the cost of delivering our 2050 climate change targets and meeting our future energy demands, from around 1 per cent of GDP to 2 per cent.
Put another way, the value of bioenergy and CCS to the energy system is £200 billion each, and if neither are developed it is difficult to see how the UK will be able to meet its climate change targets cost effectively.
Significant policy intervention will be needed to support these technologies, along with new nuclear, offshore wind and heat networks. Most of these technologies need developing, demonstrating and bringing through to full commercialisation, in order to be ready for deployment in the late 2020s or early 2030s. This tight timeline highlights why decisions taken over the next decade are so important.
CCS must be central to any national strategy for meeting carbon targets cost effectively because it enables flexible, low-carbon electricity generation, supports renewables and cuts emissions from industrial processes.
Bioenergy combined with CCS remains the only credible route to deliver “negative emissions” cost effectively and at the scale required. Negative emissions refer to the net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere across the full lifecycle: growing biomass actively removes carbon from the atmosphere and stores it in both plant matter and the soil as it grows. When the biomass is then harvested and converted into energy, the emitted carbon can be simultaneously captured at the conversion plant and stored securely offshore in depleted oil and gas reservoirs or saline aquifers.
This combination of bioenergy with CCS enables the lifecycle to become carbon negative, ultimately creating headroom in the emissions budget and reducing the need for expensive abatement measures in harder to decarbonise sectors such as transport, aviation and shipping.
“The value of bioenergy and CCS to the energy system is £200 billion each, and if neither are developed it is difficult to see how the UK will be able to meet its climate change targets cost effectively.”
Deployed effectively, bioenergy has the potential to help secure UK energy supplies, mitigate climate change, and create significant green growth opportunities. It is also one of the most scalable, cost-effective and flexible energy conversion pathways around because it can be used to generate power, heat, gaseous or liquid fuels, and more often than not, use existing infrastructure.
In addition to the critical role of delivering negative emissions, biomass and waste could provide a significant amount of low-carbon energy in the future UK energy system. Significantly, these routes could deliver more than 50 million tonnes of carbon savings a year in 2050 – equivalent to 50 per cent of our allowable emissions in that year.
To ensure only routes or pathways that deliver genuine carbon savings are supported, as highlighted in the government’s Bioenergy Strategy in 2012, it is important to understand fully the end-to-end elements across the bioenergy value chain: from crops and land use to the conversion of biomass to useful energy vectors and finally the manner in which it is integrated into the rest of the UK energy system in transport, heat or electricity.
To understand these challenges, ETI commissioned and funded the creation of a bioenergy value chain model (BVCM). This model, together with the the company’s internationally peer reviewed energy system modelling environment (ESME) – a national energy system design and planning capability – means we are uniquely placed to assess the nature and potential scale of the contribution that bioenergy can make to the future low-carbon UK energy system.
The analysis has provided insights into the future UK bioenergy sector – what biomass feedstocks would be best to produce, where, and which technologies are best deployed to convert them to different energy vectors (see box).
ETI research findings
• When biomass resources are limited, and when the need to hit our greenhouse gas targets becomes imperative, ETI believes the conversion of biomass to power and hydrogen with CCS will be the preferred utilisation pathways, since they deliver the maximum amount of carbon savings.
• Biomass to heat also offers good carbon savings relative to fossil fuels, and should be pursued where there is demand, especially for off-grid buildings. Biomass to heat schemes are particularly enabling for the longer-term development of the UK bioenergy sector, by providing an early market stimulus to increase the production of sustainable biomass in the UK. A ramp-up in domestic production is crucial if the country is ever to realise the full potential of bioenergy and maximise the UK’s green growth opportunities.
• The bioenergy sector is complex, yet immature, and the success of bioenergy’s utilisation and growth will depend heavily on the route to deployment.
• UK land is finite and valuable. With the right prioritisation, taking in to account other key uses such as food and feed production, conservation and wider ecosystem services, we believe it could deliver sufficient sustainably-produced biomass feedstock in later decades to make a hugely important contribution to the delivery of the UK’s overall greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets, without the need for potentially unacceptable levels of land-use change having to be implemented.
• Locational preferences for resource production and utilisation are apparent: with short rotation coppice willow in the west and northwest of the UK, and Miscanthus in the south and east of the UK. Short rotation forestry when grown is preferred in the south and east of the country, along with the collection of waste for making refuse derived f uel.
• Hubs of bioenergy production with CCS appear to be efficient value chain options: with gasification to hydrogen with CCS in the west of England (at Barrow) and combined cycle gas turbines running on syngas with CCS in the east of England (at Thames and Easington), based on key “resource-conversion-CCS” pathway optimisation.
For for the full research paper and overview of the BVCM toolkit, visit: www.eti.co.uk