The UK’s recent experience on demand reduction, wind and solar power, interconnection and demand flexibility suggests the answer is a clear yes.
The HPC project was first announced in 2007, the site approved in 2010, and generation originally set to start in 2017. While the official start date is 2025, it is looking unlikely to come online much before 2030.
When HPC was first proposed, electricity consumption was forecast to rise sharply. Instead, it fell. Since 2010, power demand has reduced by more than a Hinkley. Electrical appliances are becoming more efficient and the cost of LED lighting has fallen by 84 per cent in the past 5 years. McKinsey estimates more demand reduction measures could lead to a fall in power consumption equivalent to six Hinkleys by 2030.
Since the start of the decade, a Hinkey worth of wind power has been added to the UK grid. HPC hasn’t even signed a final contract. Onshore wind costs have fallen by a fifth in the past five years. As a result, onshore wind is now much cheaper than Hinkley and is cost-competitive with new gas power. Offshore wind is growing fast, and on track to be cheaper than HPC well before it generates a single watt.
In 2010 there was almost zero solar generation in the UK. There is now around a third of a Hinkley worth of solar PV. The cost of new solar generation has fallen by half in five years and is now cheaper than HPC.
Since 2010 the UK has also added around a third of a Hinkley of new interconnection capacity to other European countries. By 2025, the best-case completion date for HPC, the UK is on track to build interconnection capacity equivalent to a further 2 to 3 Hinkleys, to countries such as Norway, Denmark and France.
Demand flexibility and storage are also growing fast. New research for the National Infrastructure Commission indicates that increased system flexibility could avoid the need for more than four Hinkleys and save the UK £8 billion per year.
Based on these experiences, it is clear a combination of demand reduction, renewables, interconnection and flexibility would be more than enough to fill the gap if HPC is withdrawn – and could do so more quickly, more reliably and more cheaply than the original HPC project plan.