The government expects carbon emissions to be higher than previously anticipated during the current decade, according to revised official projections.
Updated energy and emissions projections for 2019, released by the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS), show that total UK emissions during the upcoming third and fourth carbon budget periods are expected to be higher than anticipated when the exercise was carried out last year.
Emissions for the third carbon budget, which covers the period 2018 to 2023, are expected to be 48 MtCO2e (megatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions) or two per cent higher than when the 2018 projections were published.
For the fourth carbon budget, which covers the following half decade, emissions are projected to be 7 MtCO2e higher.
The report says the main factor behind the increased emissions is the falling price of fuel since 2018, encouraging its greater use.
The increase in projected emissions has widened the anticipated shortfalls against the fourth and fifth budgets, which has risen to 188 MtCO2e.
According to the projections, total energy demand will fall by around five per cent from the level of 140 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2018 to 133 Mtoe in 2026 before then rising slowly again to 135 Mtoe by 2040.
The proportion of transport energy from oil-based fossil fuels is still projected to be 89 per cent in 2040, compared to 97 per cent two years ago.
And total residential energy demand is projected to increase by 19 per cent between 2018 and 2040 when the sector overtakes transport.
The changed projections partly reflect new assumptions, which are now based on polices that have been implemented and planned. The previous projections assumed that current government policy would continue.