Up to 13GW of renewables, most of them in Scotland, may be eligible to enter the next set of Contracts for Difference (CfD) auctions, analysis by Cornwall Insight has suggested.
The figure includes 5.5GW of onshore wind and solar projects, which will be allowed to bid for the first time in years after the government announced plans to hold a ‘pot 1’ auction for more established technologies as part of the fourth competitive allocation round in 2021.
The consultancy said up to 6GW of offshore wind may be eligible to enter to the auctions, along with roughly 1GW of other less established technologies – mostly windfarms on remote Scottish islands. The government is considering holding a separate auction for offshore wind to ensure support is available for other technologies in the ‘pot 2’ auction.
“The results are revealing not just from a commercial perspective but on the interactions of wider policy and network charging,” said James Brabben, wholsesale manager at Cornwall Insight.
“The onshore wind capacity totals 4.2GW – a high figure considering the approximately 13GW in operation currently. Of this, over 3.8GW is in Scotland, highlighting the continued concentration of sites here.
He continued: “Scotland is also home to all of the remote island wind pipeline, which totals 900MW. Dominating this is the potential 450MW Viking wind farm development on the Shetland Isles. With offshore wind carved into a separate ‘pot 3’, remote island wind projects could be in a more competitive position when compared to previous auctions.
“Although the auction is set to be a competitive one, the location of potential applications may cause other issues such as high Transmission Network Use of System costs for larger sites in Scotland, differences in load factors and site conditions and wider financing and strategic factors at play from project sponsors.
“The pipeline may also change as we head through to 2021, particularly as some sites continue to look at subsidy-free and merchant options instead, while new sites may also join the queue for the CfD.”