The queue to connect to the power grid could reach 800GW – four times the amount needed to decarbonise the energy system – by the end of 2024, the Electricity System Operator (ESO) has revealed.
The ESO said 49GW of projects joined the transmission queue in January alone.
The figures were released in response to Ofgem’s decision last week to allow the ESO and National Grid Electricity Transmission (NGET) to extend by three months the deadlines for providing full offers to customers as part of the temporary two-step connections process they launched in March last year.
The decision means they now have until 1 June to issue these offers, most of which were due by the end of February.
Ofgem expressed disappointment in National Grid’s performance, noting that, even with the delay, the stopgap measure is expected to bring little to no improvement in connection times for the majority of affected customers.
The process, which applied to all new applications to connect to the transmission network in England and Wales for a 12-month period beginning in March 2023, was one of a number of actions that the ESO promised to take in its five-point plan for accelerating connections to the power grid.
Writing in a post on its website, David Wildash, interim director of engineering and customer solutions at the ESO, said this plan and other industry initiatives have enabled the organisation to accelerate the connection of 40GW of projects and remove 4GW of stalled projects from the queue through its Transmission Entry Capacity amnesty.
However, since the launch of the two-step process, Wildash said the connections queue has grown at an “unprecedented pace”, with 49GW joining the transmission queue in January 2024 alone.
“On current trajectories, the connections queue across transmission and distribution could reach 800GW by the end of 2024 – over four times the volume required to reach net zero,” he added.
He said the 150GW of new connection requests that National Grid received over the last year was more than double its original estimate.
Despite some having “no intention to build,” Wildash said the current connections process treats all projects as viable, meaning connection dates are affected by associated transmission reinforcement works.
“As a result, and as second step offers reached the advanced stages of assessment and processing, it became clear that the anticipated benefits would not be delivered, with approximately 60% of customers receiving a later connection date,” he explained.
“Recognising that this was not an acceptable outcome for customers, the ESO has worked with National Grid Electricity Transmission on an alternative assessment methodology for considering wider system enabling works, aligning with the forthcoming outcome of the transitional Centralised Strategic Network Plan.
“This action will improve the range of second step customer connection dates overall. It means 60% of customers will receive a better or aligned date to their first step offer. At this point in time, 40% will receive a date beyond their first step offer but we are working to see if these can be further improved.”
Wildash acknowledged that this outcome is “not what was envisaged at the outset” and will be “hugely disappointing to our customers, who were rightly under the impression that their second stage connection dates would accelerate.”
Ofgem has ordered the ESO and NGET to provide weekly updates to the regulator on the provision of full connection offers to customers. It said its approval of a three-month deadline extension is based on “the firm expectation that no further extensions will be required or requested”.