It is “extremely unlikely” that heat decarbonisation will be achieved unless a “significant” ramping up of government policy is forthcoming, according to a new briefing from the UK’s main hub for research into sustainable energy.
The paper, published today (8 September) by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), finds that existing domestic heat policy falls short of delivering against the UK’s net-zero ambitions.
It says gas boilers are continuing to be sold at a record rate with 1.67 million units installed last year in British homes, up by 1.8 per cent compared to 2018.
By contrast it says the government’s proposed Clean Heat Grant would provide support for 12,500 homes per year to switch to low-carbon heating solutions, largely air source heat pumps, during the financial years 2022-23 and 2023-24.
“If heat is to be decarbonised, heat pump sales will need to increase significantly driven by more ambitious future policy”, it says.
Without additional policy intervention, the report says the Clean Heat Grant proposals seem likely to maintain a “flat” heat pump market while that for boilers continues to grow.
It says that fossil fuel heating systems need to be replaced in at least 10 million homes by 2035 to stay on target to meet net zero. Currently in the UK only 5 per cent of domestic heat demand is met by low-carbon sources.
The report also echoes recent calls for greater harmonisation of costs between electricity and gas in order to encourage households to switch to the former.
“Unless consumers can see a financial benefit in the form of lower operating costs, it is unlikely that a modest upfront grant will provide sufficient incentive.”
It says the Heat and Buildings Strategy, which the government said is due to be published later this year, should lay out “immediate” actions for reducing emissions from buildings that must go far beyond the current proposals for clean heat and existing energy efficiency.
Key policies required, according to the report, include a large-scale financial support programme for energy efficiency and low-carbon heat to ramp up delivery rates and encourage innovation.
And in 2017/18, the authors say that the rate of government supported energy efficiency upgrades was just 20 per cent of the 19,000 energy efficiency home upgrades which will be required every week by 2050
In addition, the report says that scale and speed required for the transition means “some progress” must be made on decarbonisation in areas currently on the gas grid before the potential of hydrogen for heating is known.
Immediate progress should therefore focus on deploying energy efficiency, communal heat networks and heat pumps, while trials establish the role hydrogen may play by reducing the uncertainty surrounding the technology.
And while the £2 billion Green Homes Grant to be spent over six months is a “step in the right direction”, the heat and buildings sector will need £10 billion every year to keep on course to meet net zero.
Professor Rob Gross, director of UKERC, said: “Whilst the recent government announcement to of the Green Homes Scheme is extremely welcome and will provide direct support for building efficiency retrofits, it is vital that the decarbonisation of heat is seen as long term multi-decadal challenge. If successful the Green Homes Scheme should to be extended, or further measures need to be introduced to ensure sustained government commitment and support in the long-term.”