Rudd, under the heavy influence of the Treasury, backs shale gas development at the expense of renewable energy and carbon capture and storage support in a bid to keep consumer costs low.
But former shadow minister Tom Greatrex says that the position leaves the government vulnerable to events beyond its control at a time when generation capacity remains a concern.
In an exclusive column for Utility Week Greatrex warns that the government will rely on a continued mild, wet and windy winter to safeguard against supply shortfall and keep consumer winter heating costs low.
Also the Competition and Markets Authority investigation will need to provide an outcome which is satisfactory to both industry and consumers alike and the oil price will need to recover to levels which makes shale development a viable investment, Greatrex warns.
In addition smart grid technology and storage will need to make huge strides “in spite of apparent government indifference”.
“At least two of those may well happen, one seems unlikely and the other is the weather,” Greatrex says.
“The combination of tighter capacity margins, an increasingly imbalanced supply mix and a commodity price yet to find its floor brings not only short term problems but also inhibits medium term mitigation and long term action,” Greatrex added.
“Mostly that is outwith the control of ministers, so Amber Rudd must hope that in 2016 she is well endowed with that priceless political commodity – luck.”