The UK electric vehicle (EV) charge point market is set for an almost 30 per cent annual growth despite the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, new research has found.
Energy consultancy Delta-EE has compiled charging installation forecasts for homes, workplaces and public places.
Modelling for the forecasts takes into account many different factors, including: EV uptake rates, government policies, technical developments, emerging business models and customer behaviour.
Delta-EE’s UK EV charger forecast shows the market is set to grow 29 per cent year-on-year through to 2030, despite Covid-19 having an impact on new vehicle sales.
At the end of 2019 there were around 182,000 charge points installed in the UK. By 2030, Delta-EE forecasts an increase to around 4.1 million.
John Murray, head of EVs at Delta-EE, told Utility Week that while the virus has impacted short-term growth significantly, the overall longer-term trend will be less impacted.
“To calculate this growth rate, we compare the number of charge points installed in 2019 versus how many we expect to be installed in 2030. Since Covid is assumed to have zero impact on how many charge points will be installed in the year 2030, actually the overall long-term growth rate remains unchanged with/without Covid”, he explained.
Murray also said that the short-term implications of Covid means Delta-EE expects both new charge point installations and EV sales will be down 30 per cent this year, 20 per cent in 2021 and 5 per cent in 2022 (versus pre-Covid assumptions).
He added: “But we believe charge point installations will continue to grow across all segments, backed by renewed government funding.
“As we know, availability of charge points is one of the key barriers to widespread EV adoption. We’re all eager to see the transition to electric happen as quickly as possible, but if more emphasis is put on the infrastructure behind it, we could see an accelerated EV uptake in line with the government’s vision.”
By 2030, Delta-EE predicts the majority of charge points (71 per cent) will still be installed at home. This is a decrease of 5 per cent over the decade as an increasing number of EV owners will not have access to off-street parking. Delta-EE expects the biggest growth in workplace charging (7 per cent growth) by 2030, as it acts as a substitute for home charging.
The research also revealed that the the share of charge points installed in public locations versus home and workplaces will stay relatively level, with rapid chargers still only accounting for less than 2 per cent of on-street chargers by 2030.
It added that rapid chargers in destination locations such as shopping malls and hotels, will move from a market share of 18 per cent of destination chargers today to 6 per cent in 2030 due to an expected growth in the number of slower chargers being rolled out.