Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to provide more than 11GW of flexible capacity to the power grid by 2030, according to new analysis by Open Energi.
The energy tech company said convincing drivers of the benefits of smart charging will be crucial for transforming EVs from a threat to grid stability to a useful asset.
By 2020, with around 1.6 million EVs expected to be on the road, the research suggests that smart charging could unlock between 200MW and 550 MW of demand turn-up and between 400MW and 1.3GW of demand turn-down.
With 9 million EVs on the road in 2030, the figures rise to 3GW of demand turn-up and 8GW of demand turn-down. The availability of flexible capacity would change throughout the day depending on charging patterns.
“The electrification of transport is happening faster than anyone expected and EVs are set to have a significant impact on infrastructure, systems and markets,” said Open Energi strategy and innovation lead Dago Cedillos.
“There has been a lot of attention given to the worst-case scenarios but smart charging technology means EVs can be managed to the benefit of the system, and help accelerate our transition to a more reliable, affordable and sustainable energy future.”
However, Cedillos said EVs will only be able support the grid if drivers can be persuaded of the benefits of smart charging: “Smart charging can only happen with the consent of the driver, and drivers will only consent if their car is charged and ready to go when they need it.
“A combination of artificial intelligence and data insight can help to automate charging without affecting user experience, so that the technology can learn and respond to changing patterns of consumer behaviour and deliver an uninterrupted driver experience.
“Getting this right is key to aligning the future of sustainable energy and transport.”
The analysis is based on forecasts for EV adoption from National Grid’s ‘two degrees’ future energy scenario.