The UK could be heading for severe droughts this summer according to analysis showing river flow levels comparable to the 1976 and 1984 drought summers.
Scientists at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) have warned that sustained heavy rain is required to reverse the very dry conditions seen this spring.
River flow and soil moisture levels have plummeted after the driest May on record with some locations reaching unprecedented lows despite flooding earlier in the year.
UKCEH said that despite the very wet winter months reservoir stocks in some places are 15 – 20 per cent lower than average for the time of year.
UKCEH said recent rainfall only offered “modest, short-term relief to the situation” and it predicts an uncertain period ahead. Its analysis of data suggests below average river flow will persist in the north and western parts while flows are expected to return to normal or slightly below normal levels in the Midlands and east of England.
It said “above average rainfall” will be needed to replenish both flow and reservoir levels and reverse some of the effects of the dry months.
Katie Muchan, a hydrologist at UKCEH, says: “This situation, with exceptionally dry soils and low river flows is concerning, and all the more remarkable given that just over three months ago there was significant flooding in many areas of the UK as a result of the wettest February on record.”
She said this could impact crop yields and potentially mean water use restrictions if rainfall stays low.
UKCEH said water systems are likely to remain under stress through the summer.