A greater reliance on electrification of the energy system and a limited rollout of hydrogen and carbon capture infrastructure across the UK will lead to higher emissions from industry by 2050, the government’s industrial decarbonisation strategy has said.
The strategy, which was published this week, contains the results of modelling showing the impact on industrial emissions of greater or lesser rollout of hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS) infrastructure.
In the first scenario hydrogen and CCUS networks are extensive throughout the UK, while in the second they are limited to clusters around major centres of industry, like the Teesside petrochemicals plant.
Both scenarios achieve “significant” emission reductions that are broadly consistent with net zero but deliver different levels of savings beyond 2035.
More limited rollout of the network allows less decarbonisation through CCS and switching to low-carbon hydrogen, leading to greater reliance on electrification instead.
It means higher emissions in 2050 overall as some remote sites like cement plants are unable to fully decarbonise due to lack of access to carbon dioxide transport and storage infrastructure. These emissions would have to be offset by greenhouse gas removal technologies, says the strategy.
Dispersed sites outside of the main industrial clusters include energy-intensive processes such as cement production, glass manufacturing and lime. These sites generate just under half of all industrial emissions.
The application of CCS in such sites would only be economical if the cost of the technology reduces substantially and an extensive pipeline network is developed to transport carbon dioxide to the nearest storage site.
Dispersed cement sites pose a “unique challenge”, says the report. Half of emissions from cement production arise from the calcination of limestone, which produces carbon dioxide as a by-product, which can only currently only be addressed through CCS, it says
Several cement sites are far away from industrial clusters and some are in or close to rural areas of natural beauty, increasing the costs for deploying carbon dioxide transportation pipelines.
The strategy says alternative means of transporting carbon dioxide by rail or road are possible options that the government will explore with the cement industry.
However, it says progress must be made during this decade on both low-carbon hydrogen or electricity.
And in industry, it says there are short-term “low-regret” opportunities for conversion to hydrogen including steam boilers and combined heat and power processes on chemicals, refineries and paper.
In the longer term, the strategy says hydrogen is currently the “most promising” low-carbon option for high temperature direct firing used in kilns for example.
However, such technologies are not yet commercially ready and require further innovation and testing to reach maturity.
The strategy sets an overall ambition to cut UK heavy industrial emissions by at least two-thirds by 2035.
Nick Molho, executive director of the Aldersgate Group of investors, said: “It is important that the UK’s ongoing approach on industrial decarbonisation does not just focus on industrial clusters.
“British industries like cement, glass or ceramics are located outside of clusters and face additional challenges to deploying technologies like CCS, particularly due to the uncertain availability of transport and storage infrastructure and limits to economies of scale. Additional and more tailored policy incentives will be required for these dispersed industries, including support for electrification, developing new carbon capture and usage business models and fiscal incentives to drive greater resource efficiency.”