The electricity capacity margin is expected to tighten to 5 per cent at times of peak demand if the UK experiences an “Average Cold Spell”. If the weather remains average throughout winter, that rises to 8 per cent in the central case.
Total power capacity has decreased by 2 per cent to 74.7GW. The closure of 5.8GW worth of coal power stations since last winter, due to European emissions legislation, has been partially offset by increased gas, wind and biomass capacity.
Chris Train, director of market operations at National Grid, said: “While there have been power station closures since last winter, the information suggests that the market can meet demand in cold weather. But as the system operator, we’re never complacent and it’s up to us to be ready to balance the system in real time. We believe we are ready and have the tools we need to play our part.”
Gas demand is expected to peak at 511 million cubic metres a day. Forecast maximum production from UK-owned North Sea fields is down 19 per cent to 110 mcm/d, reflecting the fact that last year’s peak flows were lower than expected.
Train admitted it was hard to predict where gas supplies would come from this winter but said overall the picture is “looking pretty healthy”. He added: “If there is one thing that has been constant over the past five years or so, it is that every winter has looked different in terms of its supply makeup.”