More combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) are forecast to remain online in 2030 than previously anticipated because the UK will fall short of its target to roll out 50GW of offshore wind generation by then.
Cornwall Insights quarterly overview of GB power market trends concludes that more CCGTs will be needed to cover delays to the rollout of offshore wind which largely results from the last Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction round.
While last September’s CfD auction failed to secure any bids from offshore wind developers, future rounds of the auction process are expected to support future deployment of the technology.
However, the government’s target of 50GW of offshore wind by 2030 will not be met although the share of total power output from this source of generation will increase from 13% in 2024/25 to 21% in 2030/31, Cornwall’s latest power market outlook says.
This would mean offshore wind overtaking the nation’s fleet of CCGT plants to become the biggest source of generation as the latter’s share of power output declines from 29% next year to 20% in 2030/31.
However, to compensate for delays in the roll out of offshore wind, more CCGTs will stay online until 2030 compared to Cornwall’s previous quarterly power market outlook.
It also means fewer CCGTs will be turned into simpler open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) power stations, which can be fired up more quickly to run as peaking plants, before 2030, according to Cornwall.
However the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero’s proposal to introduce an annual emissions limit for existing and new build plants in the capacity market from 2034-35 will give the owners of ageing CCGT plants an incentive to convert to less efficient OCGTs because they will be run less frequently, the consultancy says.
The capacity of both OCGTs and lithium-ion batteries will increase, offering flexibility and balancing services during periods when low carbon power is unavailable due to low wind speeds or lack of sunshine.
In addition, Cornwall says both carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) capacity will be increasingly deployed by 2030 to reduce the reliance on unabated gas for flexibility.
RenewableUK published figures last month showing that the pipeline for battery storage projects has increased by more than two-thirds over last year from 50.3GW to 84.8GW.
The report also says that power prices will remain above pre-2021 levels due to Europe’s increased dependence on international LNG to replace Russian gas.