With estimates that UK power demand will increase 70% by 2035 and triple by 2050 to account for the electrification of transport and heating, grid infrastructure needs to grow and become more sophisticated if major costs for consumers are going to be avoided.
This isn’t solely a decision to put more copper in the ground or build pylons, although more physical assets will be needed, but we will need to deploy existing advanced systems and new, AI-driven techniques to make energy infrastructure work efficiently, affordably and sustainably.
Positive steps have been taken, including in the recent Autumn Statement. However a range of factors risk knocking efforts off course. A challenging macro-economic and geo-political environment makes capital investment harder and has caused supply-chain shortages. Greater policy uncertainty can dissuade entrepreneurs and businesses from expanding in the UK and there is a global demand for green skills.
The reality is that the same amount of infrastructure will be needed to meet decarbonisation goals, but the longer we wait to deliver it the more expensive and labour intensive it becomes to deliver it in the time we have available.
The quicker we get on with it the better, a global race for orders and skills placing demands on the international supply chain is forming and Britain is at risk of being at the back of the queue.
What is the time frame for upgrading the grid?
The latest network price control (RIIO-ED2) started this year and saw a 30% increase on Distribution Network Operator (DNO) investment to £6 billion over the next five years and Ofgem recently announced that they have implemented strategic legal and technical changes, resulting in the earlier-than-anticipated readiness of the grid for energy infrastructure connections. However, the Future Energy Scenarios and BEMA’s Net Zero By Design report highlight just how much more investment is needed and how much work needs to be done.
A combination of supply-chain shortages, a gap in green skills and delays for that spending until later this decade risk preventing the grid from being upgraded to the necessary levels in time.
This lack of skills and investment translating into capacity is a direct contributor to the significant bottlenecks we have seen develop in connecting new renewables projects to the grid, inevitably hindering the progress of decarbonising. Recent announcements to free up existing capacity on the grid with flexibility schemes and rethinking the policy on the connections queue and so-called ‘zombie’ projects are promising, but ultimately the scale with which new capacity is required means that significant investment in expanding the grid is utterly essential.
With the amount of distributed generation and low carbon technologies connecting to the low and medium voltage network, DNOs will need autonomy to upgrade and modernise the grid when it’s needed as well as in anticipation of the demand that is coming.
How can these challenges be addressed?
We are only in the foothills of the ramp-up in capacity that will be needed to deal with future electricity demand and technologies. The problems we have now are only going to get worse if we sit on them.
There also needs to be clearer indication and proactivity from the government to steer and increase grid investment. At Lucy Electric, we are investing in our operations in the Middle East and India because there are clear signals that we need to invest to meet market demand. The same certainty is lacking in the UK, and it is deterring investment at the moment. Less diversion from previously stated milestones and targets would be a good place to start, a clear plan for our generation mix, the role of storage or the scale of low carbon technologies would be even more valuable.
Digitalising the network with remote monitoring and automation technologies, and utilising AI where possible, will also help the network maximise efficiencies. This also requires upgrades and enhancements to ensure these cutting-edge technologies can be applied.
The skills gap
The government strategy has set up the Green Jobs Delivery Group to help deliver the 480,000 skilled green jobs by 2030. However, the industry needs clarity on the investment path for how these plans will be delivered and the more time that passes, the more jobs are needed to hit our UK targets. What we need is a clear step-by-step strategy for bringing new talent into the industry and upskilling those already involved.
At Lucy Electric, we have been working to encourage the STEM skills needed as well as apprenticeships to provide the workforce needed for the push for net zero, and the Autumn Statement announcement of £50 million for apprenticeships in key sectors is welcome, but the competition is high and it’s global. We would get behind a green apprenticeships scheme to get skilled workers into the industry from an early stage in their career. Vocational training schemes are also vital and introducing it at a secondary school level could help bring fresh talent, interest, and enthusiasm to the industry.
Implementing new automation technologies or AI solutions can help address some of the shortcomings, but the more practical roles need a hands-on approach and incentives will be needed to attract the necessary talent, be it from educational institutions or from other industries.
We must act now
Despite the supply-chain challenges, we are not seeing enough commitment to the upgrade of the grid in terms of orders. Compare it with the Netherlands – a country with a quarter of the population of the UK – which has put orders in for 182 primary substations. The UK hasn’t committed to anywhere near that number.
Looking at how we manage the whole system currently, there are expensive inefficiencies from a lack of grid investment in the right places and not seeing the broader solutions available as part of long-term, coordinated, UK-wide policies. The £62 million paid to wind farms to power down when the grid cannot carry their capacity is just one example, the vast amount of storage in the contracted queues for network operators is another. Both of these point to a system in need of reform and a challenge for the supply chain to tool-up appropriately to help deliver net zero.
While inflation and macro-economic pressures have upped the cost of raw materials and contributed to the supply chain difficulties, the longer we leave it, the more difficult it will be to meet UK targets and the more expensive for consumers in the long run.