High energy prices are predicted to keep UK gas demand low for a second consecutive winter.
However, in its first Winter Review, National Gas Transmission has predicted that strong exports to Europe will keep overall demand for British gas at a steady level.
Last winter, Great Britain recorded a 13% year-on-year decrease in residential gas demand. National Gas Transmission said this was 8% lower than it had anticipated. It attributed the dip in demand “largely due to price increases”.
The national gas network operator expects to see a similar level of demand this winter due to continued high prices.
The report adds: “There is no new intelligence to suggest any changes, we therefore expect daily metered demand to continue at similar levels to last winter.”
Despite the predicted lull in demand in Great Britain, exports of gas are forecast to more than make up the deficit.
A record high of gas exports to Europe was recorded between October 2022 and March 2023. During the winter 7.6 billion cubic metres of gas was exported to Europe through Britain’s network – the highest level ever and almost double that of the previous winter.
“That rise in export of gas from GB to Europe was largely due to the impact of reduced gas flows from Russia, combined with Europe’s target to have storage stocks 80% full by 1 November 2022,” the report explains.
“The supply constraints and demand levels observed in Europe caused the market to respond as expected, with the price of gas in Europe higher than the prices seen in GB, causing high flows to be directed into continental Europe.”
The report adds that exports “were close to maximum capability” during the first part of winter, then dropped significantly during the second half of November due to a planned outage of a key interconnector.
However, exports increased again from December once the interconnector was back online.
The report adds that increased demand in Britain during cold snaps in December and January also reduced the amount of gas that was able to be exported.