The latest report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warning that “strong” and “rapid and large-scale” reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to prevent runaway global warming, has increased pressure on the UK government to accelerate action.
The report, which provides the physical science base for the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report due to be completed later this year, said the changes already being observed in the climate are “unprecedented in thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years”.
Temperatures during the most recent decade are the highest observed for 125,000 years and glaciers have retreated since the 1950s at their fastest rate for at least two millennia, the IPCC said.
Some of these changes, such as continued sea level rise, are “irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years”.
The report said there is a “near-linear relationship” between cumulative CO2 emissions as a result of human activity and resulting global warming. Each 1000 gigatonnnes (GT) of cumulative CO2 emissions is estimated to cause a 0.45C rise in global surface temperatures.
Over the next 20 years, the global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5C of warming above pre-industrial levels.
Reaching net zero CO2 emissions is a “requirement” to stabilize human-induced global temperature increases.
The IPCC estimated that the world can only afford to emit a maximum of 900 GT of CO2 in order to keep temperature rises to within the 1.5C limit set under the Paris climate change agreement.
Europe is likely to see “more intense and frequent” in rainfall and associated flooding, according to the report, as a result of increased temperatures.
However, the report said that “rapid and sustained” reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases would limit climate change.
Unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5C or even 2C will be beyond reach, the IPCC warned.
Panmao Zhai, co-chair of the IPCC working group that produced today’s report, said: “Stabilizing the climate will require strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and reaching net zero CO2 emissions. Limiting other greenhouse gases and air pollutants, especially methane, could have benefits both for health and the climate.”
Industry figures said that the IPCC’s latest conclusions intensify pressure on the UK government to show a lead on curbing emissions ahead of the COP 26 climate change summit, which is due to take place in Glasgow later this year.
Ministers faced mounting criticism over recent weeks that the production of key policy documents, like its heat and building strategy, are behind schedule.
Sir Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrat and ex-energy and climate change secretary, said: “Climate change is here, it’s already affecting our communities, the economy and people’s lives. Yet the prime minister still can’t make his mind up whether he cares about the climate or not. This is a wake-up call.
“The UK should lead the world in tackling the climate emergency. Instead we’re showing other countries that climate inaction is acceptable.”
Prime minister Boris Johnson himself described the report as a “wake-up call”, stating: “Today’s report makes for sobering reading, and it is clear that the next decade is going to be pivotal to securing the future of our planet. We know what must be done to limit global warming – consign coal to history and shift to clean energy sources, protect nature and provide climate finance for countries on the frontline.”
COP26 president Alok Sharma said: “Our message to every country, government, business and part of society is simple. The next decade is decisive, follow the science and embrace your responsibility to keep the goal of 1.5C alive.
“We can do this together, by coming forward with ambitious 2030 emission reduction targets and long-term strategies with a pathway to net zero by the middle of the century, and taking action now to end coal power, accelerate the roll out of electric vehicles, tackle deforestation and reduce methane emissions.”
Further reaction:
Philip Dunne, chairman, Environmental Audit Committee
“Internationally, this report strengthens COP president designate Alok Sharma’s hand in pressing for updated pledges for reduced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from the states party to the Paris Agreement who have not yet revised their NDCs. It indicates the need to reach an ambitious agreement at COP26 in Glasgow in November which will genuinely set us on the path to net zero by 2050.
“Domestically, the report shows the likely regional effects of continued warming at the current rate and demonstrates the challenges of adaptation we are likely to face in the coming decade. The prime minister has inherited a favourable leadership position following years of successful decarbonisation by successive administrations. Before COP26 leaders convene in Glasgow, he must show them he has the necessary political courage, by driving the government to adopt the strategies necessary to make his high-level climate promises a reality.”
Emma Pinchbeck, chief executive, Energy UK
“Today’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report sets out the stark reality of the challenges we face from a changing climate.
“The energy industry has led the way in decarbonising the UK economy and reducing emissions, and will continue to play a leading role in delivering our net zero target by 2050. Low carbon technologies can help tackle climate change while keeping bills down for consumers.
“Climate change is a global challenge that can only be tackled with increased cooperation among governments, businesses and citizens.”
Stew Horne, head of policy, Energy Saving Trust
“With the eyes of the world on the UK as we build up to COP26 in November, the UK government must now show real leadership by recommitting to delivering a greener recovery. The UK government has set some of the most ambitious climate pledges of any major economy in the world.
“We all stand to benefit from a low carbon future and must all play our part in achieving this goal. However, government has to lead the sustained change across society. It is crucial that the upcoming policy milestones set out the detail to drive behaviour change alongside business innovation and investment.”
Luke Murphy, head of Environmental Justice Commission, Institute for Public Policy Research
“The IPCC report is crystal clear – we’re running out of time on the 1.5C target. The impacts of the climate crisis are already with us – flooding, heatwaves and wildfires have all been made more likely, and these and other threats will only multiply and worsen in future.
“The time for talk, half measures, dithering and delay has passed: we need action from world leaders and we need it now. As the host of COP26, the UK government has a unique responsibility to show leadership at home by putting in place plans to rapidly reduce emissions while also using all of its diplomatic skill to achieve consensus abroad.
“Despite these dire warnings, however, we cannot take public consent for the transition to a greener economy for granted. People must be at the heart of the UK’s rapid transition to net zero, or it won’t succeed. Moreover the plans we make must be fair to everyone and make the UK fairer for all. Only through this ‘fairness lock’ will we win the support of the people we need to make this national ambition a reality.”
David Smith, chief executive, Energy Networks Association
“The UK’s energy networks are some of the greenest and smartest in the world, but we need monumental action and collaboration across all industries to deliver net zero.
“Today’s warning is stark. Action must be taken now to address the climate emergency. We urge the government to push forward in publishing the long-awaited Net Zero, Hydrogen, and Heat and Buildings strategies.”
Richard Black, senior associate, Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit
“Coming less than three months before COP26, this report is a huge wake-up call to all governments showing that as things stand, they are not on track to keep climate change within manageable bounds.
“The window to delivering the Paris Agreement 1.5C limit without significant overshoot is closing fast – and missing that window will mean far greater expense in future on both unproven negative emission approaches and clearing up climate change impacts.
“COP26 presents a clear opportunity to implement credible policies in areas that will cut emissions quickly including ending coal use, restoring forests and cracking down on methane leaks – all of which also present economic opportunities.”
Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland and chair of The Elders group of global statesmen and women
“To those who seek to argue that it’s too hard, or too late, and so not worth trying – the report is a reminder that every fraction of a degree of warming really does matter.
“The level of climate ambition has never been greater than it is right now and there is still everything to fight for. Governments must do all they can to prevent the 1.5C window shutting.”