Boris Johnson’s departure from No 10 Downing Street would not derail the government’s net zero emissions drive because support for the policy is too deeply rooted amongst businesses and the UK’s international partners, a Conservative environmental campaigner has claimed.
At an event, held last week at London University’s Kings College to debate net zero and the Tory Party, panellists were quizzed on how much the government’s support for the policy depends on the commitment of the prime minister.
Jack Richardson, senior climate programmes manager at the Conservative Environment Network, said there is a risk that the government could be blown off course on net zero when Johnson steps down.
“He has been really good at driving for this agenda. At whatever point he ceases to be a Tory leader, that risk definitely exists.”
But he said that to drop support for net zero would run counter to the plans of companies, like automobile manufacturers that are “overwhelmingly switching” to electric vehicles, he said: “To go against net zero is going to involve standing up and saying I’m going to go against all those companies that are now investing in transition plans.”
He also said that dropping net zero would mark a diplomatic volte-face by the government after investing considerable effort in persuading other countries to sign up to similar commitments in the run up to last year’s COP 26 climate change summit.
Gideon Skinner, head of politics research at polling company Ipsos MORI, told the same meeting that while it is “clear” that concerns about the environment are being “squeezed” by cost-of-living worries amongst voters, “outright” climate change sceptics are a “fairly small constituency”.
“There is clearly latent support for policies to deal with net zero. For the Conservatives, they also have to think about what their actions on net zero and climate change do for that image as a party as a whole.”
But Dr Robert Saunders, a historian of 20th century politics, said Conservative environmentalism is “quite dependent on Boris Johnson at the moment”.
“It’s crucial to embed this across the party to make a durable Conservative case for action that is resilient to changes of leaders.”
He said he is somewhat “gloomy” about the prospects of the Conservative Party maintaining its commitment to net zero.
“There’s going to be huge pressure to cut taxes and fuel bills. As the election nears, there’s going to be huge pressure to rebuild the kind of cultural divides that pits ordinary people against elites and experts and do-gooders.”
But Saunders said that rather than formally abandoning net zero, there is a greater risk that the Conservatives will duck the “difficult decisions” required to turn the policy into “reality”.