The transmission system operator has predicted that the capacity margin for winter 2016/17 will be a “manageable” 5.5 per cent. The loss of load expectation is 0.9 hours per year.
The figures take account of the 3.5GW of spare capacity which has been contracted into the SBR. Without it the margin would be just 0.1 per cent and the loss of load expecation would be 13.7 hours per year.
National Grid also predicted that gas supplies will be sufficient to meet demand over the coming winter, saying there are a “wide of potential supply sources”.
Director of UK system operations for National Grid Cordi O’Hara said: “We believe the margin is manageable and that we have the right tools and services available, including extra power we can call on if we need it, for times of highest demand.”
Energy analyst for the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit Jonathan Marshall said: “Despite the ongoing closure of coal-fired power stations, the risk of blackouts this winter is similar to last year, when the system continued as normal.”
He continued: “If there’s a missing piece in this jigsaw, it’s arguably the unexploited potential of demand side response… is relatively cheap, flexible and can be brought on stream quickly, so it would make sense for the government to allow it to compete on equal footing with supply-side measures.”
National Grid made the forecast as it launched a consultation on its winter outlook which is due to be published in October.