The large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be “essential” if the UK’s is to meet its newly-adopted target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, National Grid has stated in its latest Future Energy Scenarios report.
The electricity system operator (ESO) has retained the four main scenarios from last year’s report – Consumer Evolution, Steady Progression, Community Renewables and Two Degrees. But this year it has also added a bonus scenario mapping out a potential a net-zero future.
The ESO said CCS is needed for three key purposes: to produce low-carbon hydrogen from methane; to decarbonise industrial processes; and to generate so-called negative emissions in combination with bioenergy.
In the net-zero scenario, bioenergy with CCS removes 37MtCO2e of greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere each year by 2050 – more than half of all residual emissions. This would require the majority of bioenergy to be used for electricity generation, limiting the amount available for other sectors.
However, it would still leave the UK with 35MtCO2e of residual emissions, meaning the scenario only represents a 96 per cent reduction when compared to 1990 levels.
“Our assumption is that other, as yet commercially unproven, technologies would develop to enable the reduction or removal of remaining residual emissions, potentially alongside widespread behaviour change,” the report explains.
The scenario also envisions a massive increase in generation capacity, which rises from 108GW currently to 263GW. This compares to 218GW in the Two Degrees scenario and 223GW in the Community Renewables scenario.
Generation capacity in 2050
The extra capacity is required to due to the deeper electrification of industrial and commercial energy demand which helps raise overall electricity consumption to 491TWh per year by 2050. Annual electricity demand in the Two Degrees is significantly lower at 422TWh.
Both the Two Degrees and Community Renewables scenarios leave some room for natural gas boilers in homes. However, these are completely gone in the net-zero scenario, with the gap being filled by a mixture of hydrogen boilers and heat pumps.
Residential heating technologies
Kayte O’Neill, head of strategy and regulation at National Grid ESO, said: “We balance supply and demand of GB energy day in day out so see first-hand how the system is changing.
“Although these are not firm predictions, we’ve talked to over 600 industry experts to build this insight and it’s clear whilst net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is achievable, there are significant changes ahead.
She continued: “It’s our ambition to be able to operate a net-zero electricity system by 2025 and the fundamental changes outlined in this report make it more important than ever to take a whole system view to ensure we have a coordinated approach to decarbonizing the whole energy sector.”