The estimate comes from Grid’s 2015 Future Energy Scenarios (FES) report, published on Wednesday, in which its projections for interconnector capacity levels have increased dramatically since last year’s prediction of 6GW by 2020 and 11.8GW by 2030.
Britain’s electricity market currently has 3.8GW of interconnection capacity with Europe; with a European Union non-binding target of at least 10 per cent – approximately 10.2GW – by 2020. Under its Gone Green scenario, this target would easily be met, Grid said.
However, the EU is now looking to raise this target to 15 per cent – approximately 22.6GW – for which the Gone Green scenario falls short. Grid puts this down to a shortage of projects in the pipeline and highlights potential opportunities for additional interconnector projects in the future.
FES sets out four possible future energy scenarios, taking into account different policy and economic landscapes.
Under the Gone Green scenario, National Grid predicts that the amount of additional wind generation installed by 2020 would total 10GW and solar capacity would reach 13.8GW. The number of heat pumps installed by 2020 would reach more than 900,000 and power generation would focus heavily on decarbonisation, meaning a proliferation of new technologies such as marine power and carbon capture and storage.
The report also sets out at a Consumer Power scenario, where innovation would focus solely on meeting the needs of consumers, with little regard for environmental goals. The two other scenarios considered are No Progression and Slow Progression, both of which focus on worlds of slow economic growth where traditional sources of gas and electricity dominate and carbon targets are either not met or are met late.
Under Consumer Power and No Progression scenarios, 6GW of interconnection capacity would be connected by 2020, with 10.8GW and 9.8GW connected by 2030 respectively. Under Slow Progression, 8.4GW would be connected by 2020 and 14.2GW by 2030.
National Grid head of energy strategy Roisin Quinn said: “Over the past year we have worked with more than 230 organisations and the feedback we received is vital to help us produce a range of clear and credible scenarios.
“Thanks to widespread stakeholder engagement and an array of expertise, we have been able to produce the most accessible and detailed FES report that we hope the industry and others will find interesting and helpful.”