The OBR indicates that between 2014 and 2040 oil and gas revenues will amount to just £57 billion, whereas new data from apolitical business organisation N-56 says revenue could be as high as £365 billion.
The level of income from the North Sea is key to the current debate over Scottish independence because the country would be entitled to 90 per cent of the revenue from oil and gas activities.
“ The OBR puts forward incredibly pessimistic forecasts on both barrel price and reserves, largely discredited by industry experts,” said N-56’s Graeme Blackett.
“What is clear is these natural resources can be maximised through implementing the recommendations put forward both by ourselves and the Wood Review, delivering considerable surpluses that we would recommend are used to invest in an oil fund to benefit future generations,” he added.
N-56 said in a statement that the new figures mean that “instead of public sector deficits Scotland’s public finances could be comfortably in surplus by as much as 7% of GDP by 2020 with surpluses of £9bn-£11n per year in the 2020s and £5 billion per year in the 2030s”.
The surplus in finances could be used to establish an oil fund “so that future generations could also benefit from this natural resource endowment”, the statement added.
The report was prepared for N-56 by energy consultancy Tulloch Energy.