Refraining from building new nuclear and gas plants may not have a significant impact on the overall costs of creating a net zero energy system, a new report has found.
The paper, titled ‘Renewable Nation: Pathways to a zero carbon Britain’, was produced by Good Energy using modelling from the Energy Systems Catapult.
The report explored six different pathways to net zero by 2050, starting with a baseline scenario based on the decentralised “patchwork” world modelled by the Energy System Catapult as part of its previous research.
In this scenario, gas plants account for a sizeable chunk of capacity but a negligible share of actual generation, whilst nuclear provides a more limited amount of capacity but a significant proportion of generation. The report said the pathway was “designed to align with the accepted orthodoxy in energy modelling with a few changes to outdated assumptions.”
The five other scenarios were all derived from this baseline, with the main focus of the report being the Zero Carbon Britain (ZCB) scenario. In this scenario, which was designed to see whether net zero emissions could be achieved without building new nuclear and gas plants, renewable technologies meet 98 per cent of all electricity demand. The remainder comes from the Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant which is already under construction and will still be operational in 2050.
The report said provided extensive innovation in alternative technologies takes place, this pathway would not have a significant impact on overall system costs when compared to the baseline, totalling £126.4 billion per year in the former and £126 billion in the latter.
It estimated the net costs of decarbonisation at between £14 billion to £49 billion a year, which it said is fully manageable. The range depends on assumptions around the future costs of electric vehicles and the possibility of reaching price parity with petrol and diesel.
Hydrogen
Elsewhere, the report strongly supported the need for the electrification of heat over the use of hydrogen.
The vast majority of heat demand in the Zero Carbon Britain scenario is electrified (81 per cent), supplemented by hydrogen (9 per cent) as well as geothermal and solar thermal (10 per cent).
Hydrogen production is still substantial at 89 TWh but is mainly used for hard to decarbonise sectors such as industry and certain forms of heavy transport.
Specifically, the report warned about the dangers of using so-called blue hydrogen which is split from natural gas. While using blue hydrogen or micro combined heat and power may offer short-term benefits, the report said it will prove “very difficult and unrealistic” to dismantle these industries in 10 to 20 years’ time after high levels of investment have been made.
“Their development will also come at the expense of zero-carbon alternatives, such as green hydrogen,” it added.
The role of consumers
Additionally, the report recognised the potential for net zero to offer long-lasting and positive impacts to the way people live their lives, adding that policy decisions need to be made with consumer support and protections built in from the outset.
It called for a long-term plan to “empower and engage” consumers with the clean technologies which will become part of their homes.
Good Energy recommended the creation of a “net zero watchdog” which is “an independent body with teeth” to protect consumers, drive the UK towards a decarbonised energy system, and tackle “greenwashing” across all sectors.
Juliet Davenport, founder and former chief executive of Good Energy, said: “There are many pathways to a zero carbon Britain but speaking as someone who has seen first-hand how vested interests can divert or hamper progress, there are more than a few among the solutions being touted today.
“We wanted to see what a route to zero carbon would look like if you stripped all of that away: no mythical technologies, no false dawns, no over promising to under deliver; a pathway built on what we know works today — renewables.”
Philip New, chief executive of Energy Systems Catapult, said: “The challenge posed by net zero means we need to imagine a world which is radically different to the one we currently live in.”
He added: “The results offer fresh insight into how we can cut emissions quickly, cheaply and with technologies which are readily available.
“The work underlines both the incredible commercial opportunities for the innovative UK energy companies we work with every day and the need for market reform to unlock the low carbon future we want.”
Nina Skorupska, chief executive of the Association for Renewable Energy and Clean Technology (REA), said: “It is clear that tackling climate change and striving towards net zero goes hand in hand with the UK’s economic prosperity.
“New jobs and investment will be created, the cost of living for families will be reduced and the Treasury will benefit from growth and greater tax revenues. That is in addition to the significant health and environmental benefits on offer, from both a social and economic perspective.
“This is a welcome report that shows that net zero is within our grasp – with a proportionally small and eminently affordable increase in investment, compared to the cost of not acting, the UK can meet its ambitions.”