Ofgem mulls changes to electricity network forecasts

Ofgem is consulting on changes to both the content and format of the long term development statements which electricity network operators are required to publish each year.

The regulator said improvements in the quality and availability of forecasting and planning data will be vital to the execution of a number of distribution system operator (DSO) functions.

The statements are intended to provide developers will the necessary information to assess the viability of their projects. They contain detailed technical information on the present state of the networks and how they are expected to evolve over the following five years.

Ofgem said there is a “growing need” for visibility over energy assets connected to distributed networks: “This is important for understanding the contribution of distributed generation to the security of supply of the GB system; informing coordinated actions by network and system operations across transmission and distribution planning; informing investment decisions; and facilitating efficient flexibility markets.”

The scope of the statements is currently limited to 33kV networks but Ofgem said it is considering extending it to cover 11kV networks as well. It previously decided against this due “the scale and complexity of the 11kV networks and the cost of collating and sharing the data”. However, the regulator said the work of the government’s Energy Data Taskforce assumes that 11kV data will eventually be made available.

It is also considering introducing a standardised model for the sharing of data, which at the moment is presented in Excel spreadsheets. The Energy Data Taskforce identified the Common Information Model (CIM) as a potential option.

Ofgem said this model would allow all actors to access the data, including those using bespoke in-house information systems. It said there “few alternatives” other than internally set standards or those aligned with specific vendors’ solutions.

“Given its use already in the wider industry, CIM has the potential to be a foundational technology with regards to DSO,” the regulator added. “We also recognise that there is a legacy of poor data quality and high variability in the structure of the disparate DNO data sources. Improvements are needed to address data issues to fulfil a robust CIM-based model.”

Ofgem noted that distribution network operators (DNOs) have created a range of mapping tools to present technical information about their networks, much of which is drawn from their long term development statements. It asked whether the production of these heat maps should be mandatory, and if so, whether there should be a standard format. It similarly queried whether load forecasts should be produced using a common methodology.

The regulator also highlighted the growth of independent DNOs, which did not exist when the statements were introduced in 2002, but now account for nearly half of all new connections. It questioned if they too should be required to produce long term developments statements in some form.

Any changes will be introduced in 2023 for the beginning of the second RIIO price control for electricity distribution. An industry workgroup will be convened next year to develop detailed proposals based on responses to the consultation.

Ofgem additionally sought views on further regulatory reforms that may be necessary to facilitate future DSO functions, including access to monitoring and operational data and the ownership of active network management systems by DNOs, which it worried could create conflicts of interest.

The deadline for submissions is 7 February 2020.