A report published just days before Scotland will go to the polls has found that the uncertainty surrounding the future shape of the power market in the event of independence could lead investors to delay decisions on Scottish investment.
BNEF figures show that Scotland has 4.7GW of commissioned wind farms, another 900MW financed or under construction, with a further 5.7GW permitted and 11.3GW at early stages.
“The permitted category alone could be equivalent to more than $12bn of investment,” BNEF said.
The report explained that a Scottish break-away would be “complex, involving tough bargaining, and would be likely to extend over a period of many months, if not longer”.
“During this period of negotiation, with oil, power and renewables support under discussion as well as the currency, defence and national debt, clean energy investors would feel less than confident about future prospects, and decisions will inevitably be delayed,” said the author of BNEF’s report, Kieron Stopforth.
Leading renewable energy developer, Infinis Energy, has already said that it will not make an investment decision on two wind projects in Scotland until the outcome of the referendum and its effects on energy policy are known.
“These delays could hit projects in the whole of the UK for a time, but the longer-lasting effect would be on those in Scotland if they are unable to compete for support under the Renewables Obligation or Contract-for-Difference schemes,” Stopforth added.
Previously energy secretary Ed Davey warned that Westminister might not extend renewables subsidies to Scottish projects in the event of independence because the levy is supported by consumers, the majority of whom are south of the border.
Shadow energy minister for the Labour party Caroline Flint has echoed the warning, telling Scotland: “You can’t have your cake and eat it, I’m afraid.”