For one former Downing Street adviser, one of the gorier scenes in Game of Thrones sprang to mind when he was watching last week’s government reshuffle unfold.
“It’s like the red wedding scene where half of your favourite characters are lying dead at the end,” says Giles Wilkes, who served as special adviser to former prime minister Theresa May on industrial and economic issues.
But while the headlines were consumed by the shock resignation of chancellor of the exchequer, Sajid Javid, for utilities the day took a less unexpected course.
The chances of a dramatic revamp of government, which had been touted following Christmas, had already been discounted before last week’s reshuffle. While the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy lived to fight another day, its secretary of state, Andrea Leadsom, didn’t.
Ditto her counterpart at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), Theresa Villiers, whose departure was also widely predicted. George Eustice, Villiers’ successor, was a natural fit to take over, having spent virtually all of his ministerial career as a farming minister.
More surprising was the appointment of Alok Sharma as Leadsom’s replacement. Sharma has risen through the ministerial ranks without making too many waves. He held a series of middle-ranking jobs under May, then gained promotion to the cabinet when he was appointed secretary of state for international development in 2019.
Tim Yeo, who served as chair of the House of Commons energy and climate change select committee, says Sharma is “not a bad choice”. “We needed a change from Leadsom, who wasn’t particularly knowledgeable about energy or particularly interested,” he says. “The new people deserve a fair wind: we have two definite improvements at BEIS and Defra. We might see slightly more progress on energy security and low carbon.”
Clive Moffatt, chair of the Gas Security Group, hopes Sharma will get a grip on issues such as the future shape of the capacity market, where investors crave certainty.
Sharma’s voting record on climate change issues has attracted criticism from environmentalists. But given that many of these votes were sponsored by opposition parties, this record reflects his loyalty to the government line rather than deeper climate change scepticism, points out Yeo.
While not officially a member of the Conservative Environment Network, membership of which is restricted to backbench MPs, Sharma is understood to be supportive of the caucus. This matters greatly, given that his remit will include the presidency of the COP 26 climate change summit, which has been vacant since Claire Perry O’Neill was removed from the role in January.
Given that one of the rationales for O’Neill’s sacking was the desire to secure a high-profile leader for the Glasgow UN event, Sharma’s appointment feels “slightly underwhelming” to Chris Rumfitt, managing director of public affairs agency Field Consulting. “Having talked up the potential of getting a real heavyweight to lead COP, they haven’t done it,” he says.
The alignment of BEIS and the COP presidency could be positive, but will need to be handled carefully, according to Theo Mitchell, senior adviser at the All Party Parliamentary Group for Renewable and Sustainable Energy. “I suspect he will spend a lot of time away, which could have implications for the domestic or international agenda.”
This problem of potential bandwidth within the department may mean Sharma delegates more responsibility to Kwasi Kwarteng, who remains in post as minister of state for energy. This increasingly high-profile role will give the staunch Boris backer an “opportunity to shine”, says Rumfitt.
For Simon Markall, head of public affairs and engagement at Energy UK, the “key point” of the entire reshuffle is that Kwarteng has stayed in post. “This gives us a level of confidence and certainty: he knows these issues, so it shouldn’t slow down delivery of the white paper,” he says.
This will be welcome to those worried about the lack of clarity the department is offering on the content of the white paper, which was due to be published last summer.
Perhaps more worrying in terms of the energy climate change agenda is the shake-up at the Treasury, which led to the departure of chancellor Javid and exchequer secretary Simon Clarke, the two ministers who were most heavily involved with the Treasury’s net zero review of public spending.
Although Clarke held a relatively junior role within the Treasury, he has a strong commitment to the climate change agenda, having organised a cross-party letter to May urging her to adopt the net zero target.
“He was probably the most committed and outspoken on the net zero agenda: a lot of what we need, needs money to do,” says Markall. “Losing Simon is a blow.”
Rumfitt is less worried: “The momentum behind net zero is so strong that changing one mid-ranked minister will not make much difference.”
Utilities will be hoping this proves to be the case.