Some market participants believe so. Rupert Redesdale – acting chief executive of new entrant The Water Retail Company – tells Utility Week the water market could quickly consolidate down, as it follows the path of the energy sector.
The non-household water retail market opens on 1 April with 22 companies licensed by Ofwat to provide water supply and sewerage retail services. This is fewer than some had predicted.
When Severn Trent and United Utilities (UU) announced their joint venture last March, UU chief executive Steve Mogford said it was largely about scaling up. He said “scale is a benefit to address overall cost base and therefore competitiveness”.
Anglian Water Business managing director Bob Wilson, on the other hand, insists that Wave is about more than just creating scale. “This is about combining experience and expertise,” he tells Utility Week, adding that the merger is not merely a “marriage of convenience”. “We haven’t just stumbled together, this really is something that has been studied. Both of our parent companies looked at it long and hard.”
NWG Business managing director Lucy Darch adds: “We have both approached the market opening in a very different way. When we look at each other, there are lots of things that Anglian have done that are great, and there are lots of things that Northumbrian have done that are great. Those complementary skills going together feels like a really positive thing for the business.”
Mass mergers
Redesdale argues that “it is all to do with scale”. “The only way you can mitigate the risk of bad debt is scale,” he says. “You’ll get niche players, but I actually think you’re going to get a lot more exit from the marketplace, and you’ll end up with a small number of very large operators.” So, this is unlikely to be the final merger or acquisition the water market will see, as it starts to “replicate the energy market model”.
Following electricity deregulation, the supplier pool diminished as the regional companies merged into six large energy players: Eon, SSE, Scottish Power, British Gas, Npower and EDF Energy. It is only recently that new entrants have begun to swipe some of the market share of these companies. By the end of 2015, the market share of the independent suppliers had grown to 13.4 per cent, and the number of suppliers in the energy market has more than doubled – to around 40 – in the past four years. And yet, the big six continue to dominate.
Now, it seems, the non-household water retail market is following a similar pattern. Ahead of market opening the industry has seen its share of mergers, most notable of which was the Severn Trent-United Utilities joint venture Water Plus – currently the biggest player in the business market with 366,000 customers.
Market snapshot
The second largest player is Scottish new entrant Castle Water, which boasts a book of around 310,000 customers, after snapping up the business-bases of exiting Portsmouth Water and Thames Water – effectively increasing in size nine-fold overnight.
The third largest player now looks set to be Anglian and Northumbrian’s Wave – which will have approximately 250,000 customers. This is subject to its regulatory approval of course.
Business Stream – the incumbent, and currently largest, retailer in Scotland – has made no bones about its focus on growth. It, too, looks likely to become a sizeable player in the English market. The retailer has already bought Southern Water’s business customer book, partnered market peer Veolia Water, and signed a multi-utility deal with broker Utilitywise – in which the former will provide water services and the latter will offer energy provision.
And Source for Business, which is the trading name of Pennon Water Services, itself a combination of South West Water and Bournemouth Water, has joined forces with South Staffordshire Group – the parent company of South Staffordshire Water and Cambridge Water.
When the merger between Northumbrian and Anglian Waters’ business retail arms was announced, The Water Retail Company tweeted that water market choice will end up being between “big regional companies and bespoke specialists”. It could well be right.