UK may need 40GW of new baseload generation by 2050

Whether from nuclear plants or power stations equipped with carbon capture and storage, the UK will need up to 40GW of new low-carbon baseload generation to meet the net-zero emissions target, Greg Clark has warned according to reports in The Times.

Clark, who was replaced by Andrea Leadsom as business and energy secretary yesterday (24 July), reportedly made the comments in a meeting with industry on Monday as his department proposed to fund new nuclear projects under a regulatory asset base (RAB) model.

The minister was said to be citing government analysis that found between 30GW and 40GW of dispatchable low-carbon generation would be needed by 2050 to meet the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero.

The entirety of the UK’s existing nuclear fleet – eight power stations with a combined capacity of 9GW – is scheduled to close by 2035. But so far only new plant is being built – the 3.2GW Hinkley Point C project in Somerset.

Over the last year, the Japanese conglomerates Toshiba and Hitachi have shelved plans to build three nuclear plants at Moorside, Wylfa and Oldbury.

The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy released a raft of documents on Monday, including a consultation on the proposed RAB model, which EDF has been seeking for its Bradwell B and Sizewell C projects.

The dump is thought to be in lieu of the energy white paper, which the government promised to publish over the summer, but has yet to emerge.

Under the RAB model, developers would be allowed to recoup some of their investment before their project is up and running. The government said the model, which is already being used to fund the construction of the Thames Tideway super sewer, would lower financing costs and ultimately consumers’ bills.

However, this would also shift much of the construction risk onto bill payers, who could end up contributing large sums of money towards a project which is never completed.