Post-pandemic shifts in working and living patterns will have a limited impact on utilities development, according to new research from the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC).
The study, entitled ‘Behaviour change and infrastructure demand beyond Covid-19’, said the impact of behaviour changes on total energy consumption is likely to be “modest” and “broadly in line” with recent trends.
Overall demand for energy reduced between 2019 and 2020 in the UK, the study said, with peak demand falling by more than ten per cent in some major developed countries.
The main implication of the pandemic for energy and other utilities is a potential shift towards domestic consumption and away from non-domestic consumption due to reduced usage in workplaces, leisure and hospitality buildings.
Consumption of energy and water is likely to increase most, albeit by less than ten per cent, if the pandemic results in households moving out from cities to suburban and rural locations.
Peak usage will be important: “Patterns of demand that result in greater concentration at the busiest points in the day or week will pose greater challenges to service providers.”
But while utility networks, like public transport, are physically structured to meet peak demand, they are less financially reliant on these spikes, the report said: “Digital and utilities sectors are less sensitive to behaviour change due to pandemic compared to public transport.”
The ability of the grid to maintain security of supply throughout last year, despite shifts in demand from commercial to domestic customers, indicates that “moderate” long term behaviour change may not pose a challenge for electricity networks.
“The pandemic has established that changing working and socialising habits can affect spatial and temporal distribution of demand, but there has been no indication that current infrastructure was unable to cope.”
The report said key drivers for investment are likely to be unaffected though by the behavioural changes triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. For example, the importance of a continued commitment to a decarbonisation of infrastructure “remains high” given its “critical” role in supporting the transition net zero by 2050.
“Although uncertainty may point towards delaying decisions on major infrastructure projects, there is also a case for the government to take decisions to reduce uncertainty and increase confidence for the market and for investors.”
The NIC study said analysis of “comparable” historic shocks suggests that short term shifts in behaviour following disruptive events often do not indicate the long-term outcome.
Such shocks are more likely to cause long term changes if they result in adaptation to routines or practices, but it is “still too early” to draw conclusions about what behavioural preferences may emerge in the long term.
The research was carried out by the NIC to inform the preparation of its second National Infrastructure Assessment, which is due to be published in the second half of 2023.