Smart charging will be the key to integrating electric vehicles (EVs) on to the power system, and will improve the economics of renewable power projects, according to Aurora Energy Research.
In the report, ‘The E-mobility revolution: impacts on the GB power system and new utility business models’, published today (23 January), it said there could be 10 million electric vehicles (EVs) on UK roads by 2035.
The energy market modelling and analytics firm described advances in EV technology as a “revolution” for the automotive industry, “as it moves towards a connected, autonomous, electric and shared vehicle future”.
The study analyses the impacts of so many EVs on the power system, and the benefits to consumers and the wider industry of a shift to smart charging. Ten million EVs on the road would increase overall power demand in the UK by 19TWh per year, which equates to 6 per cent of current power demand.
It said smart charging reduces the impact of EVs on the power system, minimising the impact on peak demand, and reducing the requirement to build additional generation capacity. Interestingly, Aurora’s research also highlights that as smart charging boosts off peak power demand, it can also improve the economics of wind power generation, increasing profitability by around 2 per cent.
Evidence shows at present, most EV owners plug in and charge their car when they get home for work increasing the evening peak demand for electricity. If 10 million EVs were added to the grid and charged in this way it would require 3GWs of additional generation capacity at peak times, as well as requiring potentially costly reinforcements of the power network.
However, according to Aurora, if EV charging is “smart” then these challenges are significantly reduced. The report describes two models of smart charging: one where EV owners are encouraged to charge off-peak with lower off-peak tariffs; and a second where energy suppliers optimise EV charging to charge at the lowest price.
Either way, the benefits for EV owners are potentially significant, reducing charging costs by around £170 per electric car per year.
Richard Howard, head of research at Aurora Energy Research, said: “There are many scare stories out there suggesting our power system cannot cope with the growth in electric vehicles. On the contrary, our research suggests that provided EV charging is smart, the GB power system can easily accommodate 15 million+ electric cars. In fact, the flexibility of EV charging could be beneficial for overall grid operation, and improve the economics of renewable power.”
The report identifies the key obstacles to mass uptake of EVs – cost, range and access to charging – all look likely to be addressed in the coming years.
It said battery electric cars will reach cost parity with conventional petrol/diesel cars in the 2020s, with the crossover happening soonest for smaller and lower range cars. If battery costs fall faster than expected, it said the predicted 10 million EVs could even increase to up to 15 million in 2035 – which, it noted, would help deliver the government’s carbon targets.