by Mathew Beech
The UK’s electricity interconnectors to Europe will expose it to a “high level of uncertainty” when energy margins fall, increasing the risk of power shortages, according to Ofgem.
In an electricity capacity assessment report for the secretary of state, the energy regulator warned of a potential shortfall of 29,600MWh by winter 2015/16 if existing interconnectors fully exported power to the continent.
While full interconnector exports are “highly unlikely”, France is expected to face “increased risks” in terms of energy margins over the next four years.
The “base case” scenario predicts a 4 per cent margin for UK energy supply by 2015/16. T his still gives a probability of customers being disconnected once every 12 years. Currently the level is once every 3,30 0 years.
This scenario assumes no exports to the continent but full exports to the Republic of Ireland. It also assumes 11GW of old plant will have shut and 5GW of wind and biomass will have been added.
However, there is “uncertainty” about interconnector flows, investment decisions, and the mothballing of gas plant. The time it would take to bring mothballed plant back into service is also uncertain, and could be as short as a week for well maintained plant or as long as several months.
This could result in a further 6,100MWh shortfall and increase the chance of customer disconnections to one in seven years.
This article first appeared in Utility Week’s print edition of 12th October 2012.
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