A collapse in onshore wind installations is threatening to leave a large hole in the UK’s carbon budgets, RenewableUK has warned.
It says the absence of supporting policies for onshore wind is jeopardising the country’s efforts to decarbonise.
To meet the government’s new target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, the Committee on Climate Change has advised that onshore wind capacity, which currently stands at around 13.5GW, should be expanded by 1GW per year to 35GW by 2035.
It would need to reach 29GW by the end of the next decade to remain on this trajectory.
But according to analysis by RenewableUK, the tally is actually on track to hit 17.8GW by 2030. Of this, 4.5GW would need to be built without government-backed contracts, instead relying on power purchase agreements or merchant revenues.
The trade association said onshore wind capacity would increase by just 1GW to 14.5GW in the low growth scenario it explored, as the rate of new installations is offset by the retirement of older projects.
Allowing onshore wind to compete in Contracts for Difference auctions and amending planning rules to make it easier to repower old windfarms – as imagined in its high growth scenario – could boost the total to 24.4GW.
RenewableUK head of policy and regulation Rebecca Williams said: “We are on the eve of what should be the greenest election the UK has ever seen. Public demand for action to tackle climate change has never been higher and the next government will have to deliver ambitious, credible plans that put us on track to meet our net zero emissions target.
“Onshore wind is the single largest renewable power source in the UK and you can’t be credible on net zero unless you’re serious about onshore wind. But without new policies, we won’t get anywhere near the levels needed for net zero.”
Annual onshore wind installations in the UK peaked at 2.7GW in 2017, but the following year fell almost 80 per cent to 0.6GW after the Renewables Obligation was closed to new applicants – putting them at the lowest level since 2011.